Today, I share my mortgage interest rates forecast for 2022, along with my prediction and home loan interest rate update. You may have noticed that interest rates have absolutely spiked since early January when the Fed shocked the markets with their plans to massively reduce their balance sheet and trim their purchases of mortgage-backed securities. But, this isn’t the only story.
Inflation has been the key trigger to rates going up, but there is a silver lining for rates amidst the chaos in the eastern world. The Fed had revamped their plan of aggressively dealing with inflation by stating their more careful treatment of interest rates due to the growing conflict.
One thing I’ve learned over the years is that mortgage rates love conflict and chaos. They do very well in the midst of bad things happening and I see no different in our near future. Personally, I feel rates will go up sharply in the near term, but the second something changes in the Ukraine, such as NATO or the United States entering the conflict, we could very well see 2% interest rates again. This was precipitated by the Fed chairman backing off his initial plan of aggressively raising rates and his statement was along the lines of wanting to see what happens with this conflict.
Monetary policy changes are not a quick fix to the economy. It’s not like taking 2 aspirin and “call me in the morning”. No, it takes time to work. So, the Fed Chairman is being very cautious with how he affects the economy given the international crisis.
Many individuals are asking if mortgage interest rates will continue to grow in 2022 when it comes to a mortgage interest rate forecast. The low mortgage rates that have been in place for the past year have provided some financial respite to homeowners in the hot property market, but that trend is not projected to continue until 2022. Average mortgage rates, in fact, have progressively risen from 2.67 percent in January 2021 to 3.12 percent in mid-December. According to Freddie Mac data, they've remained in the historically low 3 percent area throughout the last year.
However, as we enter the new year, mortgage rates face significant obstacles, including rising inflation and the Federal Reserve's plans to raise the federal funds rate, reduce their balance sheet and further curtail purchases of mortgage backed securities in lieu of treasuries. This will (and the prospect has) raise mortgage rates. The consumer price index (CPI), which measures inflation by examining the cost of consumer goods and services, increased 6.8% in the year ended in November, the biggest increase in a single year since June 1982.
The bottom line is that most housing experts believe that rising inflation and the Federal Reserve's asset-purchase tapering would result in mortgage rates ranging from the upper 3% to 4% by the end of 2022. Well guess what? We are there. But the good news, if there is any and all this mess, is that I believe that with this conflict we will see quite a rally and interest rates to the downside, mid to late summer. Now I’ve checked my crystal ball, but it’s not always right. :-)
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