Some huge changes are happening right now in the United States housing market. For example, over the past 17 weeks, there have been fewer homes for sale compared to a year earlier. This is drastically different from the 50-60% year-over-year gains experienced from December 2022 through March 2023. This decrease in housing inventory is mainly due to new listings falling year-over-year for 67 consecutive weeks (i.e. more than a year of declines) and due to the fact that inventory skyrocketed in the second half of 2022. For example, based on my analysis of data from AltosResearch.com, there’s only 74k more homes for sale nationwide compared to the start of this year (i.e. +16% growth YTD) vs. Last year at this time it was up by 274k from the start of the year in 2022 (+94%).
Additionally, even though average 30 year fixed mortgage rates have been at or above 6% since September 2022 and above 7% since late-July 2023 (per the Mortgage News Daily), the US median sold price has increased by 6% year to date (data from Redfin). However, home prices have been decreasing since July which is seasonal. But more importantly, 30 year fixed mortgage rates hit 8% this week and the last time that happened was in August 2000. If these elevated rates sustain this will likely impact homebuyer demand and therefore home sales in October through December. It’s worth noting that the sales pace of existing home sales in September 2023 fell to just under 4M and that’s a 13 year low. November through January will likely be even lower. Stay tuned…
In today’s video, I share my own analysis based on the latest real estate market data from Realtor.com and AltosResearch.com and the impacts that these trends could have on our US housing market in the weeks and months ahead. Enjoy! Subscribe, share and Like!
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To give you a quick mortgage interest rates update, according to the Mortgage News Daily the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate is around 8% for the current mortgage rates (at the time of filming this video for those with excellent credit).
Comment below: what’s your housing market forecast? Do you think a housing crash will happen or are your housing market predictions that the real estate market and home prices will continue to surge?
*** Jason Walter, CPA (lic 103885 - inactive CPA license) Sacramento real estate agent and native Realty ONE Group Complete (DRE 01923240) [email protected]
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Disclaimer: Jason Walter is not a practicing tax accountant or a licensed attorney or financial adviser. Therefore, the information in these videos shall not be relied upon as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified tax accountant, attorney, or financial adviser. We have taken reasonable steps to check that the information in this video is accurate but we cannot represent that it is free from errors. You expressly agree not to rely upon any information contained in this video - it is for entertainment purposes only.
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